Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

The place of nature in conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts are gaining importance in contemporary conservation scholarship such that conservation may have entered a conflict hype. We attempted to uncover and deconstruct the normative assumptions behind such studies by raising several questions: what are conservation conflicts, what justifies the attention they receive, do conservation-conflict studies limit wildlife conservation, is scientific knowledge stacked against wildlife in conservation conflicts, do conservation-conflict studies adopt a specific view of democracy, can laws be used to force conservation outcomes, why is flexibility needed in managing conservation conflicts, can conservation conflicts be managed by promoting tolerance, and who needs to compromise in conservation conflicts? We suggest that many of the intellectual premises in the field may defang conservation and prevent it from truly addressing the current conservation crisis as it accelerates. By framing conservation conflicts as conflicts between people about wildlife or nature, the field insidiously transfers guilt, whereby human activities are no longer blamed for causing species decline and extinctions but conservation is instead blamed for causing social conflicts. When the focus is on mitigating social conflicts without limiting in any powerful way human activities damaging to nature, conservation-conflict studies risk keeping conservation within the limits of human activities, instead of keeping human activities within the limits of nature. For conservation to successfully stop the biodiversity crisis, we suggest the alternative goal of recognizing nature's right to existence to maintenance of ecological functions and evolutionary processes. Nature being a rights bearer or legal person would imply its needs must be explicitly taken into account in conflict adjudication. If, even in conservation, nature's interests come second to human interests, it may be no surprise that conservation cannot succeed.     

土壤污染物的生态毒理效应和风险评估研究进展

环境生态风险评估（ERA）流程已经被纳入全球环境政策中，既用于规范新化学物质的授权和营销（前瞻性环境生态风险评估），也用于评估潜在的污染场地（回顾性环境生态风险评估）。将土壤生态毒理学应用于风险评估，能阐明有毒物质对土壤生态系统中生命有机体的危害程度与范围。笔者主要介绍了应用评估因子法和物种敏感度分布法对基于效应数据进行的外推与估算，并综述了欧美等主要国家和地区的土壤生态风险评估框架、相关法律法规及其实施情况等，为中国开展土壤污染物生态毒理效应和风险评估等相关研究提供参考。     

Effect of pyrolysis and oxidation characteristics on lauric acid and stearic acid dust explosion hazards

The effect of pyrolysis and oxidation characteristics on the explosion sensitivity and severity parameters, including the minimum ignition energy MIE, minimum ignition temperature MIT, minimum explosion concentration MEC, maximum explosion pressure P_max, maximum rate of pressure rise (dP/dt)_max and deflagration index K_st, of lauric acid and stearic acid dust clouds was experimentally investigated. A synchronous thermal analyser was used to test the particle thermal characteristics. The functional test apparatuses including the 1.2 L Hartmann-tube apparatus, modified Godbert-Greenwald furnace, and 20 L explosion apparatus were used to test the explosion parameters. The results indicated that the rapid and slow weight loss processes of lauric acid dust followed a one-dimensional diffusion model (D1 model) and a 1.5 order chemical reaction model (F1.5 model), respectively. In addition, the rapid and slow weight loss processes of stearic acid followed a 1.5 order chemical reaction model (F1.5 model) and a three-dimensional diffusion model (D3 model), respectively, and the corresponding average apparent activation energy E and pre-exponential factor A were larger than those of lauric acid. The stearic acid dust explosion had higher values of MIE and MIT, which were mainly dependent on the higher pyrolysis and oxidation temperatures and the larger apparent activation energy E determining the slower rate of chemical bond breakage during pyrolysis and oxidation. In contrast, the lauric acid dust explosion had a higher MEC related to a smaller pre-exponential factor A with a lower amount of released reaction heat and a lower heat release rate during pyrolysis and oxidation. Additionally, due to the competition regime of the higher oxidation reaction heat release and greater consumption of oxygen during explosion, the explosion pressure P_m of the stearic acid dust was larger in low concentration ranges and decayed to an even smaller pressure than with lauric acid when the concentration exceeded 500 g/m³. The rate of explosion pressure rise (dP/dt)_m of the stearic acid dust was always larger in the experimental concentration range. The stearic acid dust explosion possessed a higher P_max, (dP/dt)_max and K_st mainly because of a larger pre-exponential factor A related to more active sites participating in the pyrolysis and oxidation reaction. Consequently, the active chemical reaction occurred more violently, and the temperature and overpressure rose faster, indicating a higher explosion hazard class for stearic acid dust.     

建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

《环境监测 分析方法标准制修订技术导则》(HJ 168—2010)对土壤环境监测标准制修订适用性探讨

针对土壤环境监测的复杂性和特殊性,从空白试验、检出限、方法验证、质量控制和标准文本等方面,指出了《环境监测分析方法标准制修订技术导则》《HJ 168—2010》对土壤环境监测标准制修订工作的适用性和执行中存在的问题。提出,为保证土壤标准制修订质量和标准执行质量,应研究适宜土壤监测方法标准的质量控制指标体系和评价体系,及时修订《HJ 168—2010》或发布补充要求;对现有土壤监测方法标准进行技术评估,加强对于土壤标准制修订工作的指导和监管。     

g-C_3N_4/C@Bi_2MoO_6复合光催化剂的制备及其光催化活性

通过水热合成法和液相沉积法制备g-C_3N_4/C@Bi_2MoO_6复合光催化剂,并采用X射线衍射、扫描电子显微镜、氮气吸脱附、紫外-可见漫反射等技术对其进行表征。研究了可见光下g-C_3N_4/C@Bi_2MoO_6催化降解罗丹明B(Rh B)的影响因素,并对其光催化反应机理进行初步探讨。实验结果表明:g-C_3N_4掺杂量为60%(w)时g-C_3N_4/C@Bi_2MoO_6的光催化活性最高;在60%g-C_3N_4/C@Bi_2MoO_6的投加量为1.00 g/L、初始Rh B质量浓度为2.50 mg/L、可见光照射150 min的条件下,Rh B的降解率达到97.90%;在g-C_3N_4/C@Bi_2MoO_6光催化降解体系中,h~+和·O_2~-是主要活性物种。     

走滑断层作用下X80管道设计应变规律和神经网络预测

走滑断层是埋地管道常见的地质灾害威胁，断层作用下管道会发生较大的拉压应变而失效。为得到X80管道的设计应变，基于有限元方法建立了走滑断层作用下管道的应变响应数值计算模型，模型使用壳单元模拟管道，非线性弹簧单元模拟土壤约束，采用西二线实际工程的管道应变影响参数范围，计算了管道的设计应变；为预测管道的设计应变值，基于以上参数化分析得到的4 817组设计应变结果，采用人工神经网络建立了管道设计应变预测模型。结果表明:该神经网络模型预测结果的最大相对误差小于10%，预测准确性良好，且该方法具有较高的计算效率，可以为断层作用下埋地管道的应变设计与评估提供参考。     

天水市紫外吸收性气溶胶时空动态的遥感监测

采用OMI传感器的气溶胶产品,分析了2006—2015年中国西部城市天水市对流层紫外吸收性气溶胶的时空分布特征。结果表明:空间上,十年间天水市的吸收性气溶胶表现出从中部向周围依次减弱的南北向带状分布规律;季节变化呈现出秋冬季高于春夏季的规律;时间上,吸收性气溶胶指数(AI)从2006年的0.075增至2015年的0.506,年均值为0.28,年均增长率为57.5%;十年间出现2次阶段性增长和2次阶段性减小;AI年际变化与天水市地方总产值相关性为0.902,第一产业对其影响最大,第三产业影响最小。     

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long‐standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea‐lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0–25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1–105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15–50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea‐lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20–80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea‐lamprey access to identify barrier‐removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea‐lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade‐off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.